CEDMS and REDMS

End-Use Forecasting Foundation of the MAISY Energy Policy Models

MAISY Energy Policy Models transform the Utility Customer Databases into a forecasting and energy policy modeling system with an economic, statistical and engineering microsimulation modeling process. The microsimulation process models energy-related decisions made by each of the customers in the databases in each year of the forecast period. Changes in each year, including new construction, new equipment purchases, existing equipment replacements, responses to changes in energy prices and other factors transform the 2002 Utility Customer Databases into databases for 2003, 2004 and each year throughout a twenty-three year forecasting horizon (to 2025, or more). Model software aggregates the results to any geographic area for any grouping of customers and presents energy use and other results on an hourly, monthly or annual basis.

The microsimulation modeling framework applied in MAISY Energy Policy Models was developed and applied in Jackson Associates proprietary end-use forecasting models CEDMS and REDMS. These models have evolved since 1982 in a variety of applications including energy use and hourly load forecasting, DSM analysis, integrated resource planning, DSM program incentive development and new technology analysis and forecasting.

In CEDMS and REDMS applications, the microsimulation models are applied to sample utility service area data developed in individual projects providing models for individual client utilities. MAISY Energy Policy Models are applied to the full national set of MAISY Utility Service Area Databases providing comprehensive modeling framework for residential, commercial and industrial sectors for the entire US or for any combination of individual utility service areas.

CEDMS (Commercial Energy Demand Model System) was first implemented for the New York Power Pool and seven New York Utilities in 1982 and shortly thereafter implemented at the New York State Energy Office, providing one of the few instances where the same model was used by utilities and the state agency responsible for regulating those utilities. CEDMS was also implemented for the New England Power Pool and several New England Utilities including Boston Edison, Commonwealth Electric and Central Maine Power. REDMS (Residential Energy Demand Model System) was introduced in the late 1980's and immediately applied at a variety of utilities including Washington Water Power, Gulf States Power, Arkansas Power and Light, Mississippi Power and Light and Louisiana Power and Light. CEDMS and REDMS have been implemented at more than two dozen utilities and energy organizations and used in regulatory hearings including short-term energy and load forecasts, long term energy and peak demand forecast, demand side management program evaluation and integrated resource analysis. CEDMS was extended for individual clients in the early 1990's to include industrial customers.

While the microsimulation policy modeling process and the detailed end-use equipment characterizations developed in CEDMS and REDMS over the last two decades has been applied in MAISY Energy Policy Models, a variety of extensions have been incorporated to address current issues including distributed resources, demand response, customer profitability analysis and other topics required in todays regulated and competitive markets.

The widely-accepted and application-proven microsimulation methodology adapted from CEDMS and REDMS and integrated with the Utility Customer Databases in MAISY Energy Policy Models provide a robust modeling approach to address the most challenging questions facing utility, state and federal government energy policy makers.