MAISY Distributed Generation Utility Service Area Analysis System (DG-USA) is designed specifically to address DG issues from an electric and gas utility perspective. DG-USA applies service area customer data from MAISY Service Area Databases using actual electric and gas tariffs and DG technology data to analyze current and future DG potentials, utility options and impacts on utility systems.

DG-USA provides customer data and DG analysis of residential, commercial and industrial customers through the year 2020 for any electric or gas utility service area in the US and Canada.

Introduction

DG-USA is a database and analysis system developed specifically to support electric utilities in their evaluations of utility DG programs and DG impacts on the utility system. Energy, hourly loads, revenue, cost and profitability impacts can be explored under a variety of assumptions and utility programs with DG-USA. Each DG-USA system includes approximately 4,000 customer records reflecting a statistically accurate characterization of residential, commercial and industrial customers in the service area.

DG-USA evaluates DG economics for each customer in MAISY Utility Service Area Databases, using the customer's energy use and hourly loads, electric and gas tariffs and equipment operating and cost characteristics for each DG system for each year in the forecast horizon. Results of the analysis are saved for each customer and used to provide summary DG-USA analysis results including:

  • Maximum market potential and forecast market penetration for DG technologies annually through 2020 including number of installations and energy and hourly load impacts by DG technology type for detailed market segments

  • System-wide and sector (residential, commercial and industrial) energy use and load profiles with and without the impacts of DG technologies

  • Customer DG benefits and costs (including the value of avoided power interruption and improved power quality) associated with DG installations

  • System-wide DG benefits and costs including electric utility generation, future capacity additions, transmission and distribution savings, benefits of reduced wholesale market purchase and /or increased sales

  • Potential utility benefits and costs associated with utility DG programs such as utility-sponsored DG installations

Individual customer results are also available for each customer in the service area database for each year permitting access and evaluation of any detail of the analysis through standard MAISY database software and detailed Excel Workbook files.

Detailed customer billing data available from client utilities can also be applied in extended DG-USA applications to evaluate DG potentials for microgrids and to assess DG economics for smaller geographic areas with T&D capacity constraints.

DG-USA Goes Beyond Traditional DG Analysis by:

  • Conducting DG analysis for a large number of a statistically representative customer records. This approach incorporates vital customer diversity information in the analysis. For example evaluating DG economics for an "average restaurant" provides inaccurate service area results because restaurants vary considerably with respect to hourly loads, DG impacts, electricity prices and willingness to invest in energy-generating technologies. The DG-USA methodology explicitly represents this customer diversity and provides accurate analysis at customer, market segment, sector and utility system results.
  • Conducting detailed economic analysis of multiple DG technologies including engines, turbines, microturbines, fuel cells and other technologies
  • Providing detailed analysis results, including maximum market potentials and forecast penetrations, of individual technologies over the next twenty years
  • Providing extensive information on individual customers and customer segments with respect to DG economics and market behavior

How are DG-USA Results Provided?

DG-USA analysis and evaluation results are provided in one or both of the following formats:

  • Automated software, database and analysis system which permits users to modify analysis inputs and generate detailed report documents
  • Instead of licensing DG-USA for inhouse use, Jackson Associates will conduct analysis of your service area and provide you with a confidential Utility DG Strategic Plan which details benefits and costs of alternative utility DG activities along with a strategic plan for utility responses and participation in the DG market. The DG Strategic plan considers customer loads, rates, cost of service, T&D costs and other factors specific to each utility..

Basic DG-USA Schematic

Summary

The DG Utility (DG-USA) is an automated software and database system which has, as its foundation, a customer database reflecting a representative sample of utility customers for the utility service areas. MAISY databases provide detailed energy use and other information on individual customers, permitting analysis of real buildings rather than engineering prototype or "average" buildings. Incorporating this customer diversity is important because what may be an unattractive DG application for an "average" customer within a market segment can hide the fact that the application is attractive for many of the individual customers within that segment. In statistical terminology this result is caused by aggregation bias inherent in using average customer characteristics rather than individual customers for analysis. The MAISY databases were developed specifically to avoid these aggregation problems.

MAISY databases reflect customer diversity and provide extensive customer building structure, equipment, occupancy and energy use data required to assess specific DG technology applications. Hourly loads for each customer in the MAISY databases support detailed load and utility rate analysis required to evaluate DG economics.

The MAISY DG Utility Service Area System (DG-USA) incorporates detailed MAISY customer data and each of the items below in a comprehensive analysis system.

  • Utility rate structures and fuel costs to compute avoided costs and DG fuel costs

  • An analysis horizon that spans commercialization of DG technologies

  • New construction over the analysis period

  • Customer choices of DG technologies including customer investment criteria and the value of avoided outages and power quality

  • Market penetration of competing technologies

  • Detailed DG cost, operating characterizations and other economic factors

  • Explicit representation of alternative financing options for DG systems

  • A microsimulation process which models DG technology choices for each customer over the analysis period

  • Detailed analysis of DG activities on electric utility system economics including T&D and generating cost savings

  • Detailed descriptions of technology and market results

  • Detailed results for individual customer records for each year of the analysis

  • Ability to conduct analysis with alternative inputs and assumptions

Running DG-USA automatically generates reports including cost comparisons, penetrations by market segment and technology along with other technology and market information. Standard MAISY database software may also be used to examine customer databases updated to reflect new technology choices of the sample of customers.

DG-USA may be rerun with alternative inputs on technology characteristics and costs, energy prices and other inputs in the analysis. DG-USA runs provide results ranging from maximum market potential based on customer and building characteristics, to forecasted market penetration resulting from customer evaluations and choice of DG technologies including the impacts of utility programs.

More Detail on the MAISY DG Utility Service Area System Components

Utility Rate Structures and Fuel Costs

Electricity charges for energy (kWh) and demand (kW) determine the avoided costs provided by DG technologies. These rate structures are typically complicated with a variety of kWh blocks, demand charges, ratchet clauses and other rate structure idiosyncrasies. MAISY DG-USA can incorporate both generic rate structures and rate structures for individual utilities. Natural gas and fuel oil costs are also used in computing avoided fuel costs and DG fuel costs.

Analysis Horizon

The cost of competing DG technologies will change over time with commercialization and mass production of newer technologies. The analysis horizon must extend far enough into the future to reflect these changes while the analysis itself must permit evaluations of alternative scenarios. MAISY DG-USA provides these capabilities.

New Construction

The potential for DG depends heavily on new construction in the next twenty years. MAISY DG -USA incorporates the impacts of new construction in DG market analysis for any time horizon through 2020.

Customer Choices/Market Penetration of Competing Technologies

MAISY DG-USA provides both the potential for individual DG technologies (i.e., the maximum market) and the likely penetration of new technologies given alternative competing DG technologies. MAISY DG-USA applies survey-based energy technology investment preferences with miscrosimulation models to determine DG choices of each of the customers in the MAISY Databases each year in the analysis horizon.

Detailed DG Cost, Operating Characterizations and Other Economic Factors

DG-USA incorporates detailed technology cost and operating characteristics along with other economic factors such as tax rates, tax credits, and pollution credits.

Microsimulation

Microsimulation is the computational (i.e., modeling) methodology applied in DG-USA to combine MAISY customer data with each of these factors listed above in a comprehensive and consistent framework. Microsimulation is a process which evaluates each of the customers in the database in each year of the analysis to evaluate DG retrofit and new construction opportunities and decision-maker choices. Each customer's DG choice is saved along with energy use, avoided energy use and costs, and other characteristics. Results are summed across customers to provide DG technology and market results for market sectors and for the entire commercial and residential markets.

Microsimulation is an attractive analysis methodology because it maintains diversity of customer characteristics while still providing results across the entire sector (i.e. residential, commercial, industrial) or any subset of the sector for a wide variety of analysis inputs and assumptions. The proprietary MAISY microsimulation modeling process has been well tested; in addition to application in studies mentioned in another section below, Jackson Associates has applied this process in the CEDMS and REDMS models since 1982 to forecast energy, peak demand, technology choices and conservation program impacts for several dozen utilities and state agencies as part of the electric utility regulatory process.

Analysis Results

DG analysis results can be summarized with a few numbers; however, fully understanding the results of a comprehensive analysis requires access to detailed results. DG-USA presents both summary results and detailed analysis results important to understanding DG market forecasts.

Report data include monthly and/or hourly economic and energy use analysis for each DG technology. Results are provided for individual MAISY customer records and for user-specified market segments.

Utility System Analysis

DG-USA provides electric and gas utility system wide DG analysis. Some of these features include:

  • System-wide and sector (residential, commercial and industrial) energy use and load profiles with and without the impacts of DG technologies

  • System-wide DG benefits and costs including utility generation, transmission and distribution savings, benefits of reduced wholesale market purchase and /or increased sales

  • Potential utility benefits and costs associated with utility-sponsored DG installations

Alternative Inputs and Assumptions

Analysis of new technologies requires a variety of inputs and assumptions which must be estimated. Prices for natural gas and fuel oil, interest rates, tax incentives and other factors will have an impact on the market for DG technologies in general and for each individual technology. A comprehensive and reliable evaluation of DG technologies requires the ability to modify these inputs and assumptions to determine the sensitivity of the analysis to individual inputs. This process can be accomplished manually by simply changing analysis inputs or in a formal manner with Monte Carlo analysis.

Customization

Applications of the DG Utility Service Area System can also be customized to meet specific client needs.

DG Technologies

Technology characteristics are included in DG-USA analysis for each of 15-20 DG technologies selected to reflect the most appropriate technology options given utility service area population characteristics. DG technologies include engines, turbines, microturbines and fuel cells. Primary DG technology characteristics include:

  • Electric efficiency
  • Initial installed cost
  • Availability
  • O&M fixed cost
  • O&M variable costs
  • Fuels
  • CHP output and temp
  • Average lifetime

Accessing DG - Utility Service Area Analysis Information

Customer and Segment Data

Results of DG-Utility Service Area Analysis are provided in the same database format as other MAISY databases; consequently, the same patented point-and-click data exploration software process is provided to access customer, market segment and service area results of the DG analysis. This software product answers specific questions with mouse-clicks on charts . Users can navigate through the DG-USA databases, exploring DG analysis results, customer characteristics and relationships. Information can be viewed in chart or table form at any level of aggregation ranging from an individual customer to all customers in a service area or service areas. MAISY software has been recognized and licensed by users outside the energy industry because of its easy-to-use intuitive user interface. For instance, the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA), an agency within the Defense Department licensed MAISY software to provide advanced information analysis capabilities.

MAISY database software provides detailed reports and exports data to other software systems. The software runs from desktop or network systems. A sample screen is shown below. Download the MAISY Demo to take a guided tour of MAISY software capabilities illustrated with MAISY State-Level Databases.

Hourly Load data for both individual customers, market segments, sectors and the entire service area are provided in Excel Workbooks which are automatically generated as part of the DG-USA analysis.

Excel worksheet hourly load data presentations are illustrated below:

Excel's Chart Wizard can be used to visually evaluate individual customer load profiles. Here, January kW week-day loads are shown for 10 customers.

DG Analysis Results

In addition to information directly accessible from DG-USA Forecast Databases with MAISY database software the following analysis results are provided in reports automatically generated by the DG-USA analysis software as text files which can be read by Word, Wordperfect , Notepad and other word-processing software.

For each year in the analysis period, by sector, market segment, DG technology class and DG technology:

  • kWh, kW, Annual Bills

  • Day-type Load Profiles (week day, peak day, weekend day) for twelve months

  • Jan - Dec DG load contributions, costs and savings

  • DG technology economic evaluation data

  • DG technology choices

These analysis summaries provide a comprehensive report of the number, type, kWh, kW and hourly load contributions, economic evaluations and other data on DG technology choices and economics to 2020.DG analysis reports.

Customer Information Available in DG - Utility Service Area Systems

DG-USA systems provide uniquely comprehensive and accurate information on DG systems within utility service areas because DG analysis is performed at the customer level. Each representative customer in the service area databases is updated in a new database for each year in the forecast period. In addition to basic customer characteristics and energy use, DG evaluation and choice data are also maintained for each customer record, providing DG-USA clients with a flexible and comprehensive data access and analysis as described in the previous section.

Customer detail provided in the DG-USA databases is indicated in the following table:

Forecast Database Variables Available for access with MAISY Database Software
Residential Commercial Industrial
Number of customers
Family income
Family unit description
Number of hh members
Dwelling unit type
Building age
New construction
Monthly electricity use (kWh, kW)
Monthly natural gas
Monthly fuel oil, Lpg
Monthly electric and gas load profiles*
8,7600 load detail (optional)
Monthly end-use energy use**
Monthly utility bills
DG technology choice
DG economic evaluation data by technology 		Number of customers
Building type
Floor space
Building age
New construction
Employment
Monthly electricity use (kWh, kW)
Monthly natural gas
Monthly fuel oil, Lpg
Monthly electric and gas load profiles*
8,7600 load detail (optional)
Monthly end-use energy use***
Monthly utility bills
DG technology choice
DG economic evaluation data by technology
 Number of customers
SIC
Employment
Monthly electricity use (kWh, kW)
Monthly natural gas
Monthly fuel oil, Lpg
Monthly electric and gas load profiles*
8,7600 load detail (optional)
Monthly end-use energy use****
Monthly utility bills
DG technology choice
DG economic evaluation data by technology

*Load profiles include average week day, weekend day and peak day for each of twelve months in the forecast year.
** Residential end uses include space heating, air conditioning, refrigeration, freezers, water heating, cooking, cloths drying and other
*** Commercial end uses include space heating, air conditioning, ventilation, lighting, refrigeration, water heating, cooking, exterior lighting, office equipment and other
****Industrial end uses include space heating, air conditioning, ventilation, lighting, process and other

Exporting DG - USA Data

Several options exist for exporting Energy Marketing and Hourly Load data for analysis outside MAISY including:

MAISY Spreadsheet Export. Any data selected with MAISY's chart-based navigation can be accessed with a MAISY spreadsheet function. These data can then be exported through the clipboard to another Windows program or in a comma-delimited text file which can be accessed by other software.

MAISY Report Files. MAISY also generates reports in several formats. Data from these reports can be transferred to other Windows programs via the clipboard or can be accessed as text files.

MAISY DG-USA Hourly Load Export Option. DG-USA software has a special export option to generate hourly load comma-delimited (i.e., CSV files) files which can be read by Excel , SAS and analysis software.

JA Experience in New Technology Market Analysis

Dr. Jerry Jackson, president of Jackson Associates, is a recognized expert in analyzing markets for new technologies and forecasting market penetration of new energy-related technologies. Over the past twenty-five years Dr. Jackson has conducted new technology market analysis which has been used by US Department of Energy, Office of Management and Budget, Environmental Protection Agency, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, NREL, state agencies and electric utilities. He developed market penetration estimates for solar and coal technologies for the Department of Energy and provided independent assessments of solar energy market penetration to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory . Dr. Jackson developed and applied market penetration models for new HVAC and lighting technologies, and for DSM technologies offered by several dozen utilities throughout the US. These analysis results were used to determine appropriate utility DSM expenditures and conservation targets as part of the electric utility regulatory process. Analysis results were also used to set marketing targets for many of these utilities.

Dr. Jackson has advised existing electric and gas utilities, ESCOs and new market entrants including some of the most successful new energy service providers on developing competitive market strategies. Dr. Jackson has been intimately involved in developing detailed strategies for competing in new energy markets including advising a major financial institution on competitive market profitability, developing customer profitability scoring models for utilities, providing customer hourly load data for strategic pricing analysis, advising new energy market entrants on customer profitability and targeting and other issues.

His early work includes extensive analysis of commercial and residential end-use energy, development of the first commercial sector end-use model at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in 1976 and its application in developing the Carter Administration's National Energy Plan. In 1979, Dr. Jackson became Chief of the Applied Research Division and a Senior Research Scientist at the Georgia Tech Research Institute where he headed the EPRI research effort to develop the COMMEND commercial sector end-use forecasting model.

Since 1981, Dr. Jackson has provided proprietary residential and commercial end-use models (REDMS and CEDMS) and market databases (MAISY® ) through his firm, Jackson Associates (JA). MAISY utility customer databases and analysis software are the energy industry's leading source of commercial and residential energy, hourly load data, profitability and profiling analysis (see JA Clients).

Dr. Jackson has served as a consultant to the California Energy Commission, the Electric Power Research Institute, Washington State University, Colorado School of Mines, the Solar Energy Research Institute, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the states of Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas and several dozen utilities. At DOE's request, he conducted a series of focus group sessions to help guide future DOE data collection and database development. He has also served as a consultant to DOE on various database and data development issues.

Dr. Jackson is widely published in both academic and industry publications including Public Utilities Fortnightly, Electrical World, Energy, Energy Policy, Review of Economics and Statistics, Land Economics, Journal of Business Administration, Journal of Urban Economics and Journal of Risk and Insurance. Additional research has been published in dozens of technical reports for clients.

Dr. Jackson holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Florida with specialties in econometrics and regional economics.

Clients

A list of Jackson Associates clients and background information is available at the following link: Clients.

Contact Information

To discuss possible applications of DG-USA tailored to meet your needs, contact:

Jerry Jackson,
Jackson Associates,
4819 Emperor Boulevard, 4th Floor
Durham, NC 27703
919-967-9000


e-mail:jjackson@ntrnet.net


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