MAISY End-Use Forecasting System (EUFS)

The genesis of the MAISY End-Use Forecasting System began in 1976 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory where the first commercial sector end use model was developed by Jerry Jackson, now the president of Jackson Associates. The model was used by the US Department of Energy and other federal agencies in energy forecasting and conservation analysis in support of the Carter Administration's National Energy Plan. This model, which for the first time, integrated engineering and econometric analysis in a single consistent methodology, served as the basis for a variety of end-use models beginning in the late 1970's including the California Energy Commission end use models.

While head of the Applied Research Division at Georgia Institute of Technology, Dr. Jackson and his team extended the model and provided the initial version of the COMMEND model to EPRI for distribution to its member utilities.

Jackson Associates (JA) was established in 1982 to provide proprietary commercial, industrial and residential end-use models, CEDMS and REDMS. Since 1982, JA has extended end-use modeling methodologies and customer database development to address a variety of energy, hourly loads, conservation, DSM, demand response, new energy technology, market analysis, and new product development issues for more than eighty energy-related organizations.

End-use modeling is sometimes referred to as "bottom-up" modeling reflecting the fact that energy forecasts are developed from the sum of detailed components. For instance, residential energy use is modeled as the sum of energy use in end uses such as space heating, water heating, air conditioning, and other end uses for single family, multifamily, and mobile homes. This explicit representation of the basic determinates of energy use in each demand sector provide forecasts based on verifiable inputs and also supports the direct representation of conservation and demand response programs, building and equipment standards, new technologies and other important factors.

End-use models are the predominant modeling methodology used to forecast energy use and hourly loads in applications with a forecasting horizon of one year or longer. The end use modeling methodology is also applied in the US Department of Energy's NEMS model that is used to generate the US Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook forecast to the year 2025.

End-use modeling practices have changed considerably since their introduction by Dr. Jackson more than twenty-five years ago. JA's state-of-the-art End-Use Forecast System (EUFS) includes the following characteristics:

An easy-to-use Microsoft Excel software container (all input, model equations and output are provided in a comprehensive Excel Workbook)
A simplified end-use structure reflecting needs and resources of energy forecasters and analysts in today's energy markets
A comprehensive modular structure with individual demand, supply and environmental modules which can be assembled to meet the needs of individual clients.
Parameters and characteristics developed from the MAISY utility customer databases reflecting more than one million customers in the US and Canada
Econometric and engineering relationships in a single comprehensive modeling framework
Energy use forecasts based on behavioral responses to price signals and changes in equipment and building shell efficiencies
8760 hourly loads, annual and monthly electricity, natural gas and oil use by end use and markets segment
Detailed utility DSM and demand response programs and state incentives
Modeling methodologies and databases of equipment, DSM and customers developed in more than twenty years of applications.

A typical electric utility end-use model application is shown in the following schematic.

A schematic including all modules in the EUFS is illustrated below.

The modular nature of the EUFS and the extensive utility customer database resources available in the MAISY databases permit Jackson Associates to meet individual client needs in economical modeling applications.