New Technology Modeling and Sales Forecasts
Many new energy technologies including energy management systems, load control
technologies and high-efficiency equipment and building designs have contributed
to continuing improvements in energy efficiency achieved over the last several
decades. However, a variety of new energy-using technologies are beginning
to change the structure of energy markets in a more fundamental way. Some
technologies such as natural gas combined heat and power (CHP) systems and
microturbines are fully commercialized and are being installed with increasing
frequency. Other technologies such as fuel cells and residential-sized natural
gas and stirling engine CHP systems are just entering commercialization stages.
Jackson Associates (JA) applies agent-based microsimulation modeling approaches
to forecast the impacts of new energy technologies. JA analysis provides
market potentials, sales forecasts and energy use impacts for equipment
manufacturers, ESCOS, utilities and state and federal government agencies.
New Technology Modeling and Forecasting Sample Projects
Two Japanese Energy Technology Manufacturing Companies: Analyzed US
market potential for fuel cells and natural gas CHP systems for several
companies. Forecast market potential and sales for a new combined heat and
power technology under alternative equipment prices. Provided market segment
detail and geographic detail to support strategic marketing plans.
A Large Midwest Electric Utility: Conducted analysis of the market
potential and market penetration of combined heat and power in midwest states.
Analysis included forecasts under alternative electricity, natural gas, and
equipment costs.
A US Fuel Cell Manufacturing Company: Conducted analysis of potential
customer hourly energy use and market characteristics for new technology
products.
A National Energy Service Company: Estimated market potential for
a menu of energy service measures in a half dozen targeted states.
A European-Based Power Generation Equipment Manufacturer: Conducted
microturbine market potential analysis for fifty US utility services areas.
Western Investor-Owned Utility: Developed an agent-based microsimulation
model to determine market potential and adoption of alternative energy
conservation measures under various demand-side management programs. Evaluated
costs and benefits of alternative programs and identified optimal conservation
program investments.
A Large US Power-Generation Equipment Manufacturer: Provided
customer-detailed microsimulation databases and consulting support in product
design and market potential analysis of fuel cell and CHP technologies for
both residential and commercial building applications.
Southwestern Electric Utility: Developed sales potential and sales
targets for electric heat pump marketing program.
Electric Utility Energy Service Company: Developed an online new
combined heat and power technology analysis and forecasting system for individual
electric utility service areas in the US.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory: Conducted market potential analysis
of new coal-fired technologies.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory: Conducted market penetration
analysis of solar technologies through 2020.
Agent-Based Microsimulation Technology Adoption and Sales Forecasting
Jackson Associates 'agent-based microsimulation models determine technology
purchase decisions for a statistically representative sample of residential,
commercial or industrial customers for any geographic area. Sample customers
are drawn from the MAISY Utility Customer Databases. Information on building,
equipment, operating hours, end-use energy use (including 8760 hourly electric
and thermal loads) and other data (including option hourly load data) are
available for each customer along with appropriate psychographic data (e.g.,
income, demographics) and firmographic data (e.g., business type detail,
number of employees) Current year technology purchases are estimated for
each sample utility customer, total purchases in the utility service area
(or state) is calculated by applying weights to each of the sample customers
and summing across all customers in the sample.
Energy, hourly load and equipment forecasts for future years are provided
by updating the sample of customers for the first forecast year. A sample
of new utility customers is added to the process to reflect new construction;
customer weights in the existing sample are adjusted to reflect demolitions
of existing buildings. The new customer sample reflects recently new customers
drawn from the MAISY databases. The same process is completed for each year
in the forecast period.
Energy use and equipment characteristics of each sample customer can change
in each forecast year. Existing equipment wears out and is replaced. The
efficiency and energy use for these end uses is changed to reflect new equipment.
For new construction, efficiency and energy use and fuel choices are incorporated
in individual sample customer records. Energy price changes cause changes
in utilization of most end-use equipment (e.g., increasing natural gas prices
result in thermostat changes). Utilization and fuel choices are modeled with
econometrically derived parameters and efficiency changes are modeled with
econometrically derived parameters and with information on efficiency
possibilities and appliance and building standards.
MAISY agent-based microsimulation models begin with a comprehensive, basic
characterization of energy use at the individual customer level. This
comprehensive representation allows the models to reflect customer choices
of new energy technologies, participation in incentive programs, purchase
impacts of alternative equipment design and characterstics and responses
to various marketing programs.
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Agent-based microsimulation model forecast characteristics include:
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Residential, commercial and industrial sector analysis
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CHP, DG, conservation and load control, other energy technology analysis
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Market potential and annual sales forecasts
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Energy impacts including 8,760 hourly electric and thermal loads
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Target market identification
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Analysis of alternative cost, efficiency and other technology characteristics
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Marketing program impacts on annual sales forecasts
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